Section: Research Program

Mecanistic modelling

When studying the dynamics of a given marker, say the HIV concentration in the blood (HIV viral load), one can for instance use descriptive models summarising the dynamics over time in term of slopes of the trajectories [51]. These slopes can be compared between treatment groups or according to patients' characteristics. Another way for analysing these data is to define a mathematical model based on the biological knowledge of what drives HIV dynamics. In this case, it is mainly the availability of target cells (the CD4+ T lymphocytes), the production and death rates of infected cells and the clearance of the viral particles that impact the dynamics. Then, a mathematical model most often based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) can be written [41]. Estimating the parameters of this model to fit observed HIV viral load gave a crucial insight in HIV pathogenesis as it revealed the very short half-life of the virions and infected cells and therefore a very high turnover of the virus, making mutations a very frequent event [40].

Having a good mechanistic model in a biomedical context such as HIV infection opens doors to various applications beyond a good understanding of the data. Global and individual predictions can be excellent because of the external validity of a model based on main biological mechanisms. Control theory may serve for defining optimal interventions or optimal designs to evaluate new interventions [30]. Finally, these models can capture explicitly the complex relationship between several processes that change over time and may therefore challenge other proposed approaches such as marginal structural models to deal with causal associations in epidemiology [28].

Therefore, we postulate that this type of model could be very useful in the context of our research that is in complex biological systems. The definition of the model needs to identify the parameter values that fit the data. In clinical research this is challenging because data are sparse, and often unbalanced, coming from populations of subjects. A substantial inter-individual variability is always present and needs to be accounted as this is the main source of information. Although many approaches have been developed to estimate the parameters of non-linear mixed models [44], [54], [33], [42], [36], [53], the difficulty associated with the complexity of ODE models and the sparsity of the data leading to identifiability issues need further research.